Prospect Info: 2018 Final HF Bruins Top 25 Prospect List (for discussion)

[neelynugs]

Final list below. Discussion begins. Rookie tournament starts tonight, should be interesting to see how these rankings stand up.


HF Bruins Top 25 Prospects:

1) Ryan Donato - W/C (85%)
2) Trent Frederic - C (51%)
3) Urho Vaakanainen - D (33%)
4) Jack Studnicka - C (44%)
5) Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson - C (41%)
6) Jakub Zboril - D (56%)
7) Zach Senyshyn - W (SHOWDOWN: 60%)
8) Peter Cehlarik - W (SHOWDOWN: 40%)
9) Jeremy Lauzon - D (31%)
10) Jeremy Swayman - G (SHOWDOWN: 56%)
11) Jakub Lauko - C/W (SHOWDOWN: 44%)
12) Ryan Fitzgerald - W (57%)
13) Axel Andersson - D (61%)
14) Emil Johansson - D (22%)
15) Oskar Steen - W (36%)
16) Kyle Keyser - G (SHOWDOWN: 38%)
17) Daniel Vladar - G (SHOWDOWN: 32%)
18) Alexander Khokhlachev - C (SHOWDOWN: 30%)
19) Joona Koppanen - C (SHOWDOWN: 60%)
20) Jesse Gabrielle - W (SHOWDOWN: 40%)
21) Wiley Sherman - D (78%)
22) Victor Berglund - D (62%)
23) Anton Blidh - W (56%)
24) Curtis Hall - C (52%)
25) Karson Kuhlman - C/W (31%)

Unranked:
Connor Clifton - D
Colby Cave - C
Dustyn McFaul - D
Cameron Hughes - W/C
Pavel Shen - W
Cedric Pare - C
Daniel Bukac - D
Jack Becker - W
Cam Clarke - D

Click to read more...

 

[ON3M4N]

Are the rookie games going to be streaming online? There's just so many good young players going to the Rookie Tournament that it feels like a must watch. You'll have the 3 young centers starting their battle for the #3C spot. Then you have self proclaimed "steal of the draft" Jakub Lauko as well. Of course you have Donato & Bjork who should make the NHL roster. Top that with guys like Senyshyn, Zboril, Urho, Lauzon & Keyser. It's just such a deep talented group they are sending.

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

Are the rookie games going to be streaming online? There's just so many good young players going to the Rookie Tournament that it feels like a must watch. You'll have the 3 young centers starting their battle for the #3C spot. Then you have self proclaimed "steal of the draft" Jakub Lauko as well. Of course you have Donato & Bjork who should make the NHL roster. Top that with guys like Senyshyn, Zboril, Urho, Lauzon & Keyser. It's just such a deep talented group they are sending.

Supposedly the Sabres are streaming the games on their website. Not sure if they're doing all of them, or just Sabres-only.

 

[BruinsBtn]

Thanks for doing this again. Kinda wish we'd waiting until after training camp because then we'll all have a much better idea.

Looking at these lists year after year, I think we underestimate guys who are almost there. Colby Cave played 3 games last year, is coming of 3 good years in Providence and has some nice sandpaper. He's still only 23 and he doesn't make the list? That's a guy who isn't going to be a top-6 player but he has a solid chance to be an NHLer.

If I look at that list, 25% of those guys won't accomplish what Cave has already.

It was similar last year where Sean Kuraly was around #15 despite a great showing in the playoffs prior.

TL;DR: There's too much love for young guys and not enough for the sure things.

If I had to re-rank them:

Ryan Donato
Trent Frederic
Urho Vaakanainen
Peter Cehlarik
Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson
Jakub Zboril
Ryan Fitzgerald
Jack Studnicka
Wiley Sherman
Zach Senyshyn
Anton Blidh
Colby Cave
Jeremy Lauzon
Emil Johansson
Oskar Steen
Axel Andersson
Jakub Lauko
Joona Koppanen
Victor Berglund
Jeremy Swayman
Kyle Keyser
Daniel Vladar
Karson Kuhlman
Curtis Hall

Anyway, it will change a lot after camp. I hope Studnicka proves me wrong and I heard he looked really good in the preseason against Peterborough.

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

Thanks for doing this again. Kinda wish we'd waiting until after training camp because then we'll all have a much better idea.

Looking at these lists year after year, I think we underestimate guys who are almost there. Colby Cave played 3 games last year, is coming of 3 good years in Providence and has some nice sandpaper. He's still only 23 and he doesn't make the list? That's a guy who isn't going to be a top-6 player but he has a solid chance to be an NHLer.

If I look at that list, 25% of those guys won't accomplish what Cave has already.

It was similar last year where Sean Kuraly was around #15 despite a great showing in the playoffs prior.

TL;DR: There's too much love for young guys and not enough for the sure things.

If I had to re-rank them:

Ryan Donato
Trent Frederic
Urho Vaakanainen
Peter Cehlarik
Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson
Jakub Zboril
Ryan Fitzgerald
Jack Studnicka
Wiley Sherman
Zach Senyshyn
Anton Blidh
Colby Cave
Jeremy Lauzon
Emil Johansson
Oskar Steen
Axel Andersson
Jakub Lauko
Joona Koppanen
Victor Berglund
Jeremy Swayman
Kyle Keyser
Daniel Vladar
Karson Kuhlman
Curtis Hall

Anyway, it will change a lot after camp. I hope Studnicka proves me wrong and I heard he looked really good in the preseason against Peterborough.

Not sure its underestimating guys who are close or whatever. What is Colby Cave's ultimate upside? I'd say that of a 4th liner. So I can see why people would put a lot of prospects over him.

 

[BruinsBtn]

Not sure its underestimating guys who are close or whatever. What is Colby Cave's ultimate upside? I'd say that of a 4th liner. So I can see why people would put a lot of prospects over him.

So in effect, they're just upside rankings and I'd argue we're overestimating upside. Cave had 37 goals the year after his draft year in the WHL, Studnicka had 22.

 

[JoeIsAStud]

So in effect, they're just upside rankings and I'd argue we're overestimating upside. Cave had 37 goals the year after his draft year in the WHL, Studnicka had 22.

And Cave went undrafted and Studnicka went in mid second round, because scouts don't look at pure points. And while I like him as a player, Cave is far from a sure thing to ever be more than a cup of coffee type player at the NHL level.

The very nature of crowdsourcing to gather data is somewhat flawed, but it's genius is in fact that it lets a variety of people use their own guidelines to determine who is best prospect, and generates an interesting list. I suspect if Donny has a list of top 25 prospects, it looks different than the HFboard or Your list.

You point our Kuraly was 15 last year. Honestly watching him play a full season at the NHL level and I am not sure I would change where he fits on that list at all.

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

So in effect, they're just upside rankings and I'd argue we're overestimating upside. Cave had 37 goals the year after his draft year in the WHL, Studnicka had 22.

There seems to be a little more that goes into it, than just looking at stats and goals. To start, wasn't Cave 20 years old when he scored 37? Studnicka was 18. Cave also had 3 full seasons under his belt before he scored 37. Studnicka had 2 seasons. Not sure why you're just referencing goals as well. Are goals the deciding factor? Studnicka produced 1.09 PPG as an 18 year old. Cave as a 20 year old 1.04 PPG his final year.

There is a reason that Studnicka was drafted in the 2nd round, and Colby Cave went undrafted.

 

[BruinsBtn]

There seems to be a little more that goes into it, than just looking at stats and goals. To start, wasn't Cave 20 years old when he scored 37? Studnicka was 18. Cave also had 3 full seasons under his belt before he scored 37. Studnicka had 2 seasons. Not sure why you're just referencing goals as well. Are goals the deciding factor? Studnicka produced 1.09 PPG as an 18 year old. Cave as a 20 year old 1.04 PPG his final year.

There is a reason that Studnicka was drafted in the 2nd round, and Colby Cave went undrafted.

No, both would have been the year after their draft year.

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

No, both would have been the year after their draft year.

Cave was eligible for the draft in 2013. The year after his draft year would have been 2013-2014. Cave produced 70 points in 72 games. Studnicka put up 75 points in 66 games.

 

[BruinsBtn]

And Cave went undrafted and Studnicka went in mid second round, because scouts don't look at pure points. And while I like him as a player, Cave is far from a sure thing to ever be more than a cup of coffee type player at the NHL level.

The very nature of crowdsourcing to gather data is somewhat flawed, but it's genius is in fact that it lets a variety of people use their own guidelines to determine who is best prospect, and generates an interesting list. I suspect if Donny has a list of top 25 prospects, it looks different than the HFboard or Your list.

You point our Kuraly was 15 last year. Honestly watching him play a full season at the NHL level and I am not sure I would change where he fits on that list at all.

All these lists are year after year is just a re-hash of draft position, with some tweaks.

Take Ryan Donato, a late 2nd rounder. He was never, ever close to sniffing a top prospect list even after last year when he scored 40 points at Harvard. Skip ahead a year, he scores 43 at Harvard, comes up and plays in the NHL and is great and now he's a top prospect? Shouldn't he have been a top prospect all along? Yet you'd get laughed at a year ago because of his draft position or whatever.

An even better example is Heinen. A few years ago he would be behind Subban, Khoklachev and Arnesson on every list because he was a 4th rounder. Yet here he is, scoring 50 points as a rookie.

Torey Krug was undrafted too and scored about 10 points in his first 40 AHL games. Exactly at what point did he go from being a nobody to being a top prospect?

Here's the bottom line. Take the list of rookie scoring for almost any year in NHL history and you're going to have 20 of the top 50 guys who were late draft picks or unsigned free agents. Yet take the top prospect lists every year and virtually none of them are ever on it. How is that possible? It's because people focus far too much on draft position.

So yeah, there's a reason Cave went undrafted and it's the same reason Krug went undrafted...it's tough to predict how 18-year-olds will pan out. I mean, the Bruins drafted Mitch Dempsey and he couldn't even make a CHL roster and barely gets minutes in Canadian university hockey.

 

[BruinsBtn]

Cave was eligible for the draft in 2013. The year after his draft year would have been 2013-2014. Cave produced 70 points in 72 games. Studnicka put up 75 points in 66 games.

I don't know why you're replying to that comment like you're correcting me. I was 100% right and that's exactly what I said except I pointed out that he had 33 goals and Studnicka had 22 . Yet Cave is some no-talent plug and Studnicka is the next Bergeron.

The Bruins thought enough of Cave to put him in NHL games when they were desperately fighting for the division lead and he played pretty well. I just don't understand why he's thought of so poorly here.

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

I don't know why you're replying to that comment like you're correcting me. I was 100% right and tThat's exactly what I said except I pointed out that he had 33 goals and Studnicka had 22 . Yet Cave is some no-talent plug and Studnicka is the next Bergeron.

You said Cave had 37 goals after his draft year, which was incorrect. He scored 35 goals (+2 in playoffs) his final season in the WHL, which was years after his draft eligible season.

No one has said Cave is some no-talent plug or that Studnicka is the next Bergeron.

 

[neelynugs]

So in effect, they're just upside rankings and I'd argue we're overestimating upside. Cave had 37 goals the year after his draft year in the WHL, Studnicka had 22.

everyone has their own view on what these rankings mean. for me, it's a combination of
upside and chances of being an NHL player - some guys have both, like charlie mcavoy.
he showed the crazy upside, and looks like a decent bet to reach that upside. i always liked
ryan donato, but a year ago, this list was very deep/impressive and at that point, i wasn't
quite sure how good he would be. fast forward to last year and he's so impressive at the
olympics, and follows that up with a strong offensive showing in the NHL.

 

[weaponomega]

I think we did this last year or the last couple of years. It would be interesting to see how the lists have changed over the years. If anyone has the old lists on hand...

 

[neelynugs]

I think we did this last year or the last couple of years. It would be interesting to see how the lists have changed over the years. If anyone has the old lists on hand...

Fall 2017 List:

1) Charlie McAvoy - D (64 votes --- 97%)
2) Anders Bjork - RW (39 votes --- 50%)
3) Jake DeBrusk - LW (30 votes --- 34%)
4) Zach Senyshyn - RW (27 votes --- 34%)
5) Trent Frederic - C (28 votes --- 34%)
6) Danton Heinen - LW (showdown: 34 votes --- 58%)
7) Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson - C (showdown: 25 votes --- 42%)
8) Jakub Zboril - D (25 votes --- 33%)
9) Jeremy Lauzon - D (25 votes --- 36%)
10) Urho Vaakanainen - D (24 votes --- 36%)
11) Ryan Donato - W/C (31 votes --- 36%)
12) Peter Cehlarik - LW (30 votes --- 41%)
13) Jesse Gabrielle - LW (23 votes --- 34%)
14) Ryan Lindgren - D (28 votes --- 44%)
15) Zane McIntyre - G (26 votes --- 38%)
16) Jack Studnicka - C (24 votes --- 38%)
17) Rob O'Gara - D (17 votes --- 29%)
18) Sean Kuraly - C (showdown: 20 votes --- 53%)
19) Emil Johansson - D (showdown: 18 votes --- 47%)
20) Matt Grzelcyk - D (19 votes --- 51%)
21) Joona Koppanen - C (34 votes --- 65%)
22) Anton Blidh - LW (32 votes --- 62%)
23) Ryan Fitzgerald - W/C (31 votes --- 60%)
24) Malcolm Subban - G (30 votes --- 58%)
25) Oskar Steen - RW (29 votes --- 56%)

 

[Dr Hook]

The standout from the 2017 list to me is Matt Grizz at 20.

 

[neelynugs]

The standout from the 2017 list to me is Matt Grizz at 20.

no question - he was a big surprise last year. of course it hurt him in the rankings with
so many quality options to go up against. as for this year, i'll say karson kuhlman will
be a guy we look back at and say he should've gone higher. don't think he has that much
upside, but certainly looks like a player to me.

 

[Dr Hook]

no question - he was a big surprise last year. of course it hurt him in the rankings with
so many quality options to go up against. as for this year, i'll say karson kuhlman will
be a guy we look back at and say he should've gone higher. don't think he has that much
upside, but certainly looks like a player to me.

No doubt. I had him low on the list and wasn't impressed at all with his first call-up. I really thought he never stood a chance at making it. Guess that is why I am fan and not in the business

I haven't seen Kuhlman at all, but I am looking forward to getting a look at him. There are number of guys that I want to see more of and I am thinking about getting a P-Bruins stream to do it.

 

[neelynugs]

connor clifton, not ranked in september. probably biggest surprise so far.

 

[DKH]

Colby Cave when all said and done

#1

 

[neelynugs]

Colby Cave when all said and done

#1

i added all the "unranked" guys to the bottom of the original list. hughes is another guy who has been real good.

 

[BruinsBtn]

Colby Cave when all said and done

#1

I hope last night opened some eyes. He's a good prospect.

 

[DKH]

I hope last night opened some eyes. He's a good prospect.

Why I don’t really want Coyle

 

[Alberta_OReilly_Fan]

All these lists are year after year is just a re-hash of draft position, with some tweaks.

Take Ryan Donato, a late 2nd rounder. He was never, ever close to sniffing a top prospect list even after last year when he scored 40 points at Harvard. Skip ahead a year, he scores 43 at Harvard, comes up and plays in the NHL and is great and now he's a top prospect? Shouldn't he have been a top prospect all along? Yet you'd get laughed at a year ago because of his draft position or whatever.

An even better example is Heinen. A few years ago he would be behind Subban, Khoklachev and Arnesson on every list because he was a 4th rounder. Yet here he is, scoring 50 points as a rookie.

Torey Krug was undrafted too and scored about 10 points in his first 40 AHL games. Exactly at what point did he go from being a nobody to being a top prospect?

Here's the bottom line. Take the list of rookie scoring for almost any year in NHL history and you're going to have 20 of the top 50 guys who were late draft picks or unsigned free agents. Yet take the top prospect lists every year and virtually none of them are ever on it. How is that possible? It's because people focus far too much on draft position.

So yeah, there's a reason Cave went undrafted and it's the same reason Krug went undrafted...it's tough to predict how 18-year-olds will pan out. I mean, the Bruins drafted Mitch Dempsey and he couldn't even make a CHL roster and barely gets minutes in Canadian university hockey.

guys are usually drafted based on inherient abilities that translate better towards eventual success... things that can be quantified and measured. a guy who has size will always have size. a guy who skates fast will always skate fast. a guy who displays hockey sense as a kid will very likely display hockey sense as a pro

but the x factor that comes into play is things like hungar… how much does a kid want it that might allow him to improve? how coachable is he? is he someone that will get stronger? is he someone that might have been distracted as a kid and didn't show well but he gets his act together a couple years later?

when a guy starts off rated very highly... he will keep his rating until he does something to lose it. and conversely if a guy starts off behind the 8-ball he will remain a suspect until he answers all the questions

you almost seem like you would be expecting us all to dump on the high picks the second they struggle? but we know that some struggle... and then come through. high picks succeed at a higher rate. there is very good reason you continue to give them rope and opportunity

at the same time if a kid has a 'resultful season' where he all of a sudden puts up numbers in a lower league... you seem to be suggesting we should all get very excited and immediately project this kid as a pro? but the problem is... dominating at lower leagues has never had much to do with being a successful pro unless the inheritent abilities are there that explain why the lower league domination is meaningful. by itself success at lower leagues isn't meaningful unless its a result of abilities that will allow further success at the higher levels